Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine: African Deal, $34 Billion in Sales, and Efficacy Drop

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Pfizer has reported several highlights regarding its mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. As the country and the world deal with rising Delta variant cases, Pfizer-BioNTech is still arguing that a third booster shot will be likely.

In support of that, Pfizer released new data that has yet to be peer-reviewed that their vaccine can “strongly” increase protection against the Delta variant. The data suggests that people aged 18 to 55 who received the third dose had five-fold antibody levels that can target the Delta variant. 

In older populations, 65 to 85, the antibody levels they believe can protect against Delta increased 11-fold more than after the second dose. The data is limited, focusing on 23 people. And it’s not yet clear if these increased antibody levels lead to better protection. And as many public health and vaccine experts are cautioning, it’s not yet clear if the extra protection is necessary.

The Pfizer data suggests that the vaccine efficacy hits a peak between seven days and two months after the second dose, reaching about 96.2% efficacy. From two to four months, that level dropped to 90.1%, and four to six months, to 83.7%. But the overall efficacy in people 12 years and older from seven days through second months after the second shot was 91%. And more importantly, across the full six months of monitoring, the vaccine was 97% effective in preventing severe disease.

U.S. regulators have yet to decide on if a third shot is necessary, at least for healthy individuals. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and President Joe Biden’s COVID-19 advisor, has suggested that certain immunocompromised patients might be good candidates for a third booster shot.

Meanwhile, Israel began offering a third shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine to individuals over the age of 60. 

Pfizer also announced that it expects to rake in almost $34 billion on the vaccine alone. And, of course, if a booster shot becomes necessary, billions more would be on the near horizon.

“We are very, very confident a third dose, a booster, will take up the immune response to levels that will be enough to protect against the Delta variant,” Albert Bourla, chief executive officer of Pfizer, told CNBC.

Analysts with Morningstar wrote, “We expect total sales growth will slow over the next 12 months as COVID-19 vaccine demand shifts toward emerging markets where pricing is lower.” However, “potential upside exists if larger demand for boosters emerges.”

Last week, the company announced that it had inked a COVID-19 vaccine partnership with Cape Town, South Africa’s Biovac Institute. Although the U.S. has more vaccine supply than it needs, especially since about a third of the U.S. population appears to be reluctant to get vaccinated, Africa, particularly developing countries, have struggled to get enough vaccines.

Bourla told Yahoo Finance, “The reason why we did it is not because it would increase the production of our vaccine. We did it because we understand the sensitivities of the African continent, that they want to also see part of the production happening.”

Biovac will be the first company to manufacture an mRNA vaccine on the African continent and the second to manufacture any COVID-19 vaccine. Johnson & Johnson's partner Aspen Pharmacare is located in South Africa.

Bourla has noted that it was able to manufacture and supply enough doses for Africa at its existing U.S. and European factories. And in fact, Bourla argues that by keeping tighter control of manufacturing and technology transfer, it has been more efficient, decreasing production time from 110 days to 60 days.