Buoyed by GLP-1 stars, Novo's sales soar in Q3. Will manufacturing prove a long-term hurdle?

Ever since Novo Nordisk won FDA approval for its GLP-1 weight-loss med Wegovy more than two years ago, analysts and investors have been keeping a close eye on the blockbuster drug launch. Now, Novo's third-quarter financial results (PDF) bring the situation into clearer focus.

All told, Novo's global sales came in at 166 billion Danish kroner ($23.65 billion) during the first nine months of 2023, a 33% increase from the same period a year ago.

The company's diabetes and obesity care franchise gets much of the credit for the performance, growing 40% to 153.8 billion kroner ($21.91 billion). 

As market watchers might suspect, the biggest growth driver at Novo Nordisk these days is obesity care. Sales in that division jumped 174% at constant exchange rates to 30.4 billion kroner ($4.33 billion) during the year's first nine months.

In that group, 2021 launch Wegovy is the standout, generating 21.72 billion kroner ($3.09 billion) during the period.

But even as Novo Nordisk hustles to grow its manufacturing footprint, the company expects Wegovy demand to outpace supply, CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen said on a media call, according to the Financial Times and Reuters.

To help get a handle on the surge in demand, Novo Nordisk earlier this year throttled the U.S. rollout of the drug, placing restrictions on starter doses so that existing patients can maintain access. 

Those restrictions will remain in place in the U.S. even as capacity for Wegovy is "gradually being expanded," Novo's head of North American operations Doug Langa said on a call with investors Thursday. 

The strategy will also influence Novo's launch plans abroad, Langa added. 

"While eager to launch Wegovy in more [international] countries, our focus remains to do this in a sustainable manner, for example by capping volumes," he said.  

Looking ahead, Novo in 2024 expects to deliver a "significant step up in volumes to the U.S. market compared to 2023," Novo's chief financial officer Karsten Munk Knudsen said on the company's earnings call. 

Still, Knudsen said not to look for a "hockey stick," noting that Wegovy's ramp-up will be a "gradual process where, of course, we will be starting at the lower doses and then increasing them as we move forward."

Meanwhile, as Novo experiences its GLP-1 surge, its rare disease sales fell by 18% to 12.6 billion kroner ($1.8 billion), "reflecting a temporary reduction in manufacturing output," the company said in a release. Sales for Norditropin, which treats rare endocrine disorders, fell by 54% to 2.57 billion kroner ($370 million) during the nine-month stretch.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with executive comments from Novo Nordisk's third-quarter earnings call.