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STAT’s Matthew Herper struck an industry nerve when he wrote that the drug development industry is “not prepared for the next wave of biotech innovation.”

His report ends on a somewhat dismal note: the industry is long on diagnosis (clinical development is too expensive) and short on cures.

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For an industry based on science and evidence, a good way to understand a complex situation like this is to test different scenarios in a simple model. Building on prior work by others in the field, we created such a model to help inform the much-needed debate that Herper’s article kickstarted.

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